Optimism From the Accounts Receivable Survey

The most recent edition of the Accounts Receivable Survey has been completed and that means that I have a new chart to share.

We are three-quarters of the way through the year I thought I would try to identify any developing patterns that may have emerged in 2009. Below you will see trend lines of the six revenue breakdowns measured each quarter by the survey.

I’ll grant that this is a relatively small “sample-size” and say that it is difficult to identify any real major trends in just three quarters. But on the other hand, it is also kind of nice to see how cash flow is changing throughout the year. And for the most part the news is good.

Gross Profit
Gross Profit hasn’t changed that much from the start of the year and looks to be on its way back up after a slight decline in the second quarter. The average gross profit margin in quarter three is just over 24 percent which seems to be pretty comparable to years past. Are these lean times helping us develop business practices that make us more effective sales operations? If that is the case, just wait until we can utilize our new skills in a booming economy …

Sales that are “Current”
The percentage of gross revenue budgets that are “Current”- with no outstanding payments for inventory purchased on credit- has gone up steadily throughout the year and currently sits just over 63 percent. Is this simply a matter of being “outstanding long enough” and customers are finally responding to collection notices or our subtle warnings as they come back into the store for more supplies? Or does this mean they are actually starting to see their cash flow improve and are finding it easier to make their payments on time? We can only hope that it is the latter, and if gross profit margins mentioned above are any indication, this is what I am going to believe.

Outstanding for 30, 60 or 90 Days
The last bit of good news is that outstanding amounts in the 30, 60 and 90+ days all have continued a downward trend from the beginning of the year. This makes perfect sense as “Current” amounts continue to rise. Are we are finally starting to close out some lingering accounts? Maybe the fact that we were so patient along the way has earned us clients for life!

Outstanding for 120+ Days
The only bit of bad news that I can glean from this chart is that the percentage of outstanding revenue, over 120+ days, has gone up. Are the same accounts that were outstanding in the first quarter still outstanding in Q3? I see this as a likely possibility, in which case we may have already written these off in our minds. Although this 16 percent is a bit higher than in years past, there may be some reason for optimism if cash flow is truly starting to pick up. Maybe we will be pleasantly surprised when the final numbers are tallied up.

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